Albacete vs Celta B — La Liga 2 forecast, Monday, 16 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Albacete
58%
Draw
22%
Celta B
20%
Expected goals
1.65–0.94
Albacete · Celta B
Albacete win 58% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–0 (14.0%), 2–1 (12.1%), 2–0 (10.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 50% of simulations.
Those three cover 37% of outcomes; the other 63% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Albacete score at least twice in 50%; Celta B in 24%.
Scoreline distribution
Celta B goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.0 | 10.7 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 12.1 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.6 | 3.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Albacete goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 42% | 29% | 29% |
| Market reference | 58% | 22% | 20% |
| Metis Forecast | 58% | 22% | 20% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Albacete
| 16 Aug | A | vs Las Palmas | 1–2 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Sociedad B | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Oviedo | 0–1 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Castellon | 0–2 | L |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Granada | 1–1 | D |
Celta B
| 15 Aug | A | vs Cadiz | 0–0 | D |
| 24 Aug | H | vs Andorra | 4–2 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Castellon | 1–2 | L |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Ceuta | 2–0 | W |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Eibar | 0–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Albacete (Home · 6 matches) | Celta B (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 16.7% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.67 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Albacete's home record; away stats use Celta B's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.