Villarreal vs Real Betis — La Liga result and pre-match forecast, Monday, 14 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 10.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Villarreal
48%
top pick
Draw
25%
Real Betis
27%
result
Final score
1–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Real Betis win 26.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Villarreal win. Expected goals 1.80–1.25 against 1–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (11.7%), 2–1 (8.9%), 2–0 (7.5%). It finished 1–2.
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Recent form
Villarreal
| 16 Aug | A | vs Santander | 2–2 | D |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Atletico Madrid | 2–2 | D |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Alaves | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs La Coruna | 2–3 | L |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Real Betis | 1–2 | L |
Real Betis
| 21 Aug | H | vs Real Sociedad | 1–0 | W |
| 25 Aug | A | vs Valencia | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Levante | 2–5 | L |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Real Madrid | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Villarreal | 2–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Villarreal (Home · 5 matches) | Real Betis (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 40.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.60 | 2.60 |
Home stats use Villarreal's home record; away stats use Real Betis's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.