Villarreal vs Levante — La Liga forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Villarreal
65%
Draw
19%
Levante
16%
Expected goals
2.20–0.99
Villarreal · Levante
Villarreal win 65% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–0 (10.1%), 2–1 (9.9%), 1–1 (9.1%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Villarreal score at least twice in 64%; Levante in 26%.
Scoreline distribution
Levante goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.4 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 2.7 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Villarreal goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 64% | 21% | 15% |
| Market reference | 65% | 19% | 16% |
| Metis Forecast | 65% | 19% | 16% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Villarreal | 1.51 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.55 | 1.57 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.51 | 1.45 | 1.57 Betano |
| Draw | 4.86 | 4.75 | 4.40 | 4.82 | 4.65 | 4.60 | 4.60 | 4.70 | 4.19 | 4.86 Pinnacle |
| Levante | 5.88 | 5.50 | 5.50 | 6.11 | 5.80 | 5.50 | 5.75 | 5.95 | 5.03 | 6.11 1xBet |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
Villarreal
| 16 Aug | A | vs Santander | 2–2 | D |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Atletico Madrid | 2–2 | D |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Alaves | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs La Coruna | 2–3 | L |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Real Betis | 1–2 | L |
Levante
| 16 Aug | A | vs Espanyol | 0–3 | L |
| 24 Aug | A | vs Osasuna | 0–0 | D |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Real Betis | 5–2 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Malaga | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Barcelona | 2–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Villarreal (Home · 3 matches) | Levante (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 25.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.00 | 1.75 |
Home stats use Villarreal's home record; away stats use Levante's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.