Villarreal vs Levante — La Liga result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 8.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Villarreal
64%
pick · result
Draw
19%
Levante
16%
Final score
3–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Villarreal win 64.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Villarreal win. Expected goals 2.21–1.01 against 3–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 2–0 (9.9%), 2–1 (9.8%), 1–1 (9.0%). It finished 3–1.
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Villarreal
| 16 Aug | A | vs Santander | 2–2 | D |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Atletico Madrid | 2–2 | D |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Alaves | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs La Coruna | 2–3 | L |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Real Betis | 1–2 | L |
Levante
| 16 Aug | A | vs Espanyol | 0–3 | L |
| 24 Aug | A | vs Osasuna | 0–0 | D |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Real Betis | 5–2 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Malaga | 0–0 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Barcelona | 2–4 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Villarreal (Home · 5 matches) | Levante (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 2.60 | 2.00 |
Home stats use Villarreal's home record; away stats use Levante's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.