Valencia vs Villarreal — La Liga forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Valencia
29%
Draw
26%
Villarreal
45%
Expected goals
1.18–1.61
Valencia · Villarreal
Villarreal win 45% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (12.2%), 1–2 (8.4%), 0–1 (8.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 56% of simulations.
Those three cover 29% of outcomes; the other 71% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Villarreal win is 1–2 (8.4%).
Valencia score at least twice in 33%; Villarreal in 47%.
Scoreline distribution
Villarreal goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.3 | 7.9 | 4.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 12.2 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 7.8 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Valencia goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 22% | 25% | 52% |
| Market reference | 29% | 26% | 45% |
| Metis Forecast | 29% | 26% | 45% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Valencia | 3.30 |
| Draw | 3.73 |
| Villarreal | 2.16 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Valencia
| 22 Aug | H | vs Celta Vigo | 0–0 | D |
| 25 Aug | H | vs Real Betis | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs La Coruna | 1–3 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Barcelona | 0–5 | L |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Sevilla | 0–1 | L |
Villarreal
| 16 Aug | A | vs Santander | 2–2 | D |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Atletico Madrid | 2–2 | D |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Alaves | 0–1 | L |
| 5 Sept | H | vs La Coruna | 2–3 | L |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Real Betis | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Valencia (Home · 5 matches) | Villarreal (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 20.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.20 | 2.80 |
Home stats use Valencia's home record; away stats use Villarreal's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.