Sevilla vs Valencia — La Liga result and pre-match forecast, Friday, 11 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 15.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Sevilla
48%
pick · result
Draw
29%
Valencia
23%
Final score
1–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Sevilla win 48.2% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Sevilla win. Expected goals 1.51–1.06 against 1–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.8%), 1–0 (11.5%), 2–1 (10.5%). It finished 1–0 — one of them.
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Sevilla
| 15 Aug | H | vs Rayo Vallecano | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Athletic Club | 3–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Atletico Madrid | 1–3 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Espanyol | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Valencia | 1–0 | W |
Valencia
| 22 Aug | H | vs Celta Vigo | 0–0 | D |
| 25 Aug | H | vs Real Betis | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs La Coruna | 1–3 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Barcelona | 0–5 | L |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Sevilla | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Sevilla (Home · 5 matches) | Valencia (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.80 | 2.20 |
Home stats use Sevilla's home record; away stats use Valencia's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.