Sevilla vs Osasuna — La Liga forecast, Monday, 26 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Sevilla
50%
Draw
28%
Osasuna
22%
Expected goals
1.56–0.97
Sevilla · Osasuna
Sevilla win 50% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.2%), 1–0 (11.6%), 2–1 (9.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 50% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Sevilla win is 1–0 (11.6%).
Sevilla score at least twice in 46%; Osasuna in 25%.
Scoreline distribution
Osasuna goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 6.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.2 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Sevilla goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 49% | 28% | 24% |
| Market reference | 50% | 28% | 22% |
| Metis Forecast | 50% | 28% | 22% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Sevilla | 1.94 |
| Draw | 3.47 |
| Osasuna | 4.32 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
Want the model's read each week? Subscribe for free.
Recent form
Sevilla
| 15 Aug | H | vs Rayo Vallecano | 2–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Athletic Club | 3–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Atletico Madrid | 1–3 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Espanyol | 1–1 | D |
| 11 Sept | H | vs Valencia | 1–0 | W |
Osasuna
| 24 Aug | H | vs Levante | 0–0 | D |
| 27 Aug | A | vs Celta Vigo | 2–1 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Getafe | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Alaves | 2–5 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Espanyol | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Sevilla (Home · 4 matches) | Osasuna (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 5.25 |
Home stats use Sevilla's home record; away stats use Osasuna's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.