Real Betis vs Real Madrid — La Liga result and pre-match forecast, Friday, 4 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 9.5 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Real Betis
14%
result
Draw
18%
Real Madrid
67%
top pick
Final score
1–0
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Real Betis win 14.4% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Real Madrid win. Expected goals 0.92–1.95 against 1–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–2 (13.4%), 0–1 (13.2%), 0–2 (11.8%). It finished 1–0.
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Recent form
Real Betis
| 21 Aug | H | vs Real Sociedad | 1–0 | W |
| 25 Aug | A | vs Valencia | 1–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Levante | 2–5 | L |
| 4 Sept | H | vs Real Madrid | 1–0 | W |
| 14 Sept | A | vs Villarreal | 2–1 | W |
Real Madrid
| 22 Aug | A | vs Espanyol | 2–1 | W |
| 26 Aug | H | vs Real Sociedad | 4–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Malaga | 4–0 | W |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Real Betis | 0–1 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Rayo Vallecano | 4–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Real Betis (Home · 3 matches) | Real Madrid (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 0.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 0.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.00 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Real Betis's home record; away stats use Real Madrid's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.