🇪🇸 La Liga·Monday, 31 August 2026·17:30
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Osasuna | 2.19 | 2.19 |
| Draw | 3.04 | 3.04 |
| Getafe | 4.01 | 4.01 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketOsasuna
44%
Draw
32%
Getafe
24%
Osasuna 1.46 xGexpected goals1.02 xG Getafe
Osasuna win 44% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 52% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (15.1%).
Osasuna score at least twice in 43%; Getafe in 27%.
1–1 15.1%1–0 10.4%0–0 10.2%2–1 8.7%2–0 8.5%0–1 6.9%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 15.1 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.7 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = Osasuna goals · columns = Getafe goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score52%
Over 1.5 goals72%
Over 2.5 goals45%
Over 3.5 goals24%
Over 4.5 goals11%
Osasuna clean sheet36%
Getafe clean sheet23%
Osasuna score 2+43%
Getafe score 2+27%
Osasuna score 3+18%
Model vs market
| Source | Osasuna | Draw | Getafe |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 47% | 28% | 25% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 44% | 32% | 24% |
| Metis Forecast | 44% | 32% | 24% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Osasuna
| 19 Aug | A | vs Real Madrid | 0–1 | L |
| 24 Aug | H | vs Valencia | 1–0 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | vs Espanyol | 0–1 | L |
| 14 Sept | H | vs Rayo Vallecano | 2–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Villarreal | 1–2 | L |
Getafe
| 17 Aug | A | vs Celta Vigo | 2–0 | W |
| 25 Aug | A | vs Sevilla | 2–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Valencia | 0–3 | L |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Oviedo | 2–0 | W |
| 21 Sept | A | vs Barcelona | 0–3 | L |
Head to head
| 23 May 26 | GetafevsOsasuna | 1 – 0 |
| 3 Oct 25 | OsasunavsGetafe | 2 – 1 |
Osasuna: 1W 0D 1L in last 2
Model context
| Stat | Osasuna (Home) | Getafe (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 73.7% | 26.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 63.2% | 31.6% |
| Clean sheet | 26.3% | 31.6% |
| Avg goals | 2.89 | 1.89 |
Home stats use Osasuna's home record; away stats use Getafe's away record this season.