Deportivo La Coruna vs Osasuna — La Liga forecast, Monday, 2 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Deportivo La Coruna
45%
Draw
29%
Osasuna
26%
Expected goals
1.54–1.15
Deportivo La Coruna · Osasuna
Deportivo La Coruna win 45% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.9%), 1–0 (9.4%), 2–1 (9.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 55% of simulations.
Those three cover 33% of outcomes; the other 67% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Deportivo La Coruna win is 1–0 (9.4%).
Deportivo La Coruna score at least twice in 46%; Osasuna in 32%.
Scoreline distribution
Osasuna goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 6.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 13.9 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.3 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Deportivo La Coruna goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 44% | 27% | 29% |
| Market reference | 45% | 29% | 26% |
| Metis Forecast | 45% | 29% | 26% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Deportivo La Coruna | 2.16 |
| Draw | 3.29 |
| Osasuna | 3.67 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
No recent results.
Osasuna
| 24 Aug | H | vs Levante | 0–0 | D |
| 27 Aug | A | vs Celta Vigo | 2–1 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Getafe | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Alaves | 2–5 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Espanyol | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Deportivo La Coruna (Home · no matches) | Osasuna (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | — | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | — | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | — | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | — | 5.25 |
Home stats use Deportivo La Coruna's home record; away stats use Osasuna's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.