Alaves vs Valencia — La Liga result and pre-match forecast, Tuesday, 15 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 9.8 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Alaves
55%
top pick
Draw
27%
Valencia
18%
result
Final score
0–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Valencia win 17.5% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Alaves win. Expected goals 1.65–0.91 against 0–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (12.9%), 1–0 (12.7%), 2–1 (10.7%). It finished 0–1.
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Alaves
| 15 Aug | H | vs Getafe | 3–0 | W |
| 20 Aug | A | vs Rayo Vallecano | 1–1 | D |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Villarreal | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Osasuna | 5–2 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Santander | 1–2 | L |
Valencia
| 22 Aug | H | vs Celta Vigo | 0–0 | D |
| 25 Aug | H | vs Real Betis | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs La Coruna | 1–3 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Barcelona | 0–5 | L |
| 11 Sept | A | vs Sevilla | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Alaves (Home · 6 matches) | Valencia (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 40.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.83 | 2.20 |
Home stats use Alaves's home record; away stats use Valencia's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.