Alaves vs Osasuna — La Liga result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 6 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 1.4 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Alaves
41%
pick · result
Draw
31%
Osasuna
28%
Final score
5–2
Top pick landed
Metis gave an Alaves win 41.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Alaves win. Expected goals 1.38–1.14 against 5–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.9%), 1–0 (10.2%), 0–0 (9.7%). It finished 5–2.
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Alaves
| 15 Aug | H | vs Getafe | 3–0 | W |
| 20 Aug | A | vs Rayo Vallecano | 1–1 | D |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Villarreal | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Osasuna | 5–2 | W |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Santander | 1–2 | L |
Osasuna
| 24 Aug | H | vs Levante | 0–0 | D |
| 27 Aug | A | vs Celta Vigo | 2–1 | W |
| 31 Aug | H | vs Getafe | 1–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Alaves | 2–5 | L |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Espanyol | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Alaves (Home · 6 matches) | Osasuna (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 66.7% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 83.3% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.83 | 4.33 |
Home stats use Alaves's home record; away stats use Osasuna's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.