Panetolikos vs Kalamata — Super League Greece result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 29 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 2.8 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Panetolikos
41%
pick · result
Draw
31%
Kalamata
28%
Final score
2–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Panetolikos win 40.7% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Panetolikos win. Expected goals 1.35–1.11 against 2–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (14.9%), 1–0 (10.4%), 0–0 (10.1%). It finished 2–0.
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Panetolikos
| 23 Aug | H | vs Asteras Tripolis | 3–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Kalamata | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Levadeiakos | 2–0 | W |
| 13 Sept | A | vs Panathinaikos | 0–3 | L |
| 20 Sept | H | vs PAOK | 1–3 | L |
Kalamata
| 22 Aug | H | vs Aris | 2–3 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Panetolikos | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Atromitos | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Volos NFC | 3–1 | W |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Panathinaikos | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Panetolikos (Home · 3 matches) | Kalamata (Away · 2 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 0.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.33 | 2.00 |
Home stats use Panetolikos's home record; away stats use Kalamata's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.