Larisa head into this bottom-half clash in desperate shape, winless in their last five and conceding at an alarming rate of 1.6 per home game. Panserraikos arrive in considerably better form with two wins in their last five, though their away defensive record is equally leaky, conceding 2.3 per game on the road with a clean sheet rate of just 13%. That combination of two poor defenses is worth noting.

The goals data points in interesting directions. Larisa's home BTTS rate of 64% sits well above the league average of 46%, and while their over 2.5 rate of 36% is below the norm, the underlying scoring patterns still suggest open games. Panserraikos away matches deliver over 2.5 goals at 67%, comfortably ahead of the league average of 48%.

Despite the poor current form, Larisa hold a perfect head-to-head record across the two previous meetings. This looks tighter than Panserraikos's recent momentum might suggest, and the visitors may be slightly undervalued given the hosts' alarming slump.