Larisa come into this in poor shape, winless in their last five at home with just two draws to show for it, and sitting deep in relegation trouble at 14th. Their home record this season tells a concerning story — averaging under a goal scored per game while conceding 1.5, and keeping a clean sheet just 18% of the time. Atromitos arrive in contrasting form, having won three on the bounce before back-to-back defeats, and their away defensive record is genuinely impressive with a 38% clean sheet rate on the road.

The H2H leans toward Atromitos or a low-scoring stalemate — three recent meetings have produced zero wins for Larisa. Larisa's BTTS rate of 65% at home sits well above the league average, but Atromitos have suppressed that pattern away from home, with BTTS occurring in just 38% of their road games.

The data suggests Atromitos are undervalued here. This looks like a game where the visitors control the tempo and grind out a result.