Larisa arrive at this fixture in dire straits, winless in their last five with four defeats, and sitting 14th with little to show at home this season. Their average of 0.9 goals scored per home game is well below the league norm, and a clean sheet rate of just 19% tells the full story of a side struggling at both ends. Relegation pressure is real here.

Asteras Tripolis come in with considerably better recent form, winning two of their last five on the road, and their 31% away clean sheet rate suggests a defensively organised unit. Their low scoring output away from home does drag, but the combination of a compact shape and decent results on their travels makes them hard to beat.

The head-to-head leans further toward the visitors, with Larisa failing to win in all three recent meetings. This looks tighter than the home side's position implies, and Asteras Tripolis appear undervalued on current evidence.