Kalamata vs Panathinaikos — Super League Greece forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Kalamata
9%
Draw
17%
Panathinaikos
73%
Expected goals
0.75–2.29
Kalamata · Panathinaikos
Panathinaikos win 73% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 0–2 (12.9%), 0–1 (10.9%), 1–2 (10.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 48% of simulations.
Those three cover 34% of outcomes; the other 66% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Kalamata score at least twice in 17%; Panathinaikos in 68%.
Scoreline distribution
Panathinaikos goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 10.9 | 12.9 | 9.5 | 5.3 | 3.5 |
| 1 | 2.7 | 8.2 | 10.2 | 7.5 | 4.1 | 2.8 |
| 2 | 1.3 | 2.9 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 1.1 |
| 3 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Kalamata goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 11% | 20% | 69% |
| Market reference | 9% | 17% | 73% |
| Metis Forecast | 9% | 17% | 73% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalamata | 9.17 | 9.50 | 8.50 | 8.75 | 9.25 | 9.00 | 8.50 | 8.80 | 7.14 | 9.50 Bet365 |
| Draw | 5.35 | 4.50 | 4.80 | 5.05 | 4.70 | 4.75 | 4.60 | 5.05 | 4.20 | 5.35 Pinnacle |
| Panathinaikos | 1.32 | 1.36 | 1.30 | 1.32 | 1.37 | 1.33 | 1.30 | 1.31 | 1.31 | 1.37 Betano |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Recent form
Kalamata
| 22 Aug | H | vs Aris | 2–3 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Panetolikos | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Atromitos | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Volos NFC | 3–1 | W |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Panathinaikos | 0–1 | L |
Panathinaikos
| 31 Aug | A | vs Levadeiakos | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs PAOK | 3–1 | W |
| 10 Sept | H | vs Kifisia | 3–1 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Panetolikos | 3–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Kalamata | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Kalamata (Home · 3 matches) | Panathinaikos (Away · 2 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 0.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 66.7% | 0.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 100.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.33 | 1.50 |
Home stats use Kalamata's home record; away stats use Panathinaikos's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.