Kalamata vs Panathinaikos — Super League Greece result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 8.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Kalamata
9%
Draw
16%
Panathinaikos
75%
pick · result
Final score
0–1
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Panathinaikos win 74.9% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Panathinaikos win. Expected goals 0.73–2.31 against 0–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 0–2 (13.3%), 0–1 (11.3%), 1–2 (10.4%). It finished 0–1 — one of them.
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Kalamata
| 22 Aug | H | vs Aris | 2–3 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Panetolikos | 0–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Atromitos | 1–1 | D |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Volos NFC | 3–1 | W |
| 20 Sept | H | vs Panathinaikos | 0–1 | L |
Panathinaikos
| 31 Aug | A | vs Levadeiakos | 2–0 | W |
| 6 Sept | H | vs PAOK | 3–1 | W |
| 10 Sept | H | vs Kifisia | 3–1 | W |
| 13 Sept | H | vs Panetolikos | 3–0 | W |
| 20 Sept | A | vs Kalamata | 1–0 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Kalamata (Home · 5 matches) | Panathinaikos (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 80.0% | 0.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 0.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 75.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.80 | 1.25 |
Home stats use Kalamata's home record; away stats use Panathinaikos's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.