Iraklis vs Atromitos — Super League Greece result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 9.6 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Iraklis
32%
Draw
32%
result
Atromitos
36%
top pick
Final score
1–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 32.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Atromitos win. Expected goals 1.20–1.21 against 1–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (15.2%), 0–0 (10.7%), 0–1 (10.3%). It finished 1–1 — one of them.
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Iraklis
| 22 Aug | A | vs AEK | 0–4 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Volos NFC | 1–1 | D |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Asteras Tripolis | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Atromitos | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Aris | 0–0 | D |
Atromitos
| 22 Aug | A | vs Olympiakos | 0–1 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs PAOK | 1–2 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Kalamata | 1–1 | D |
| 12 Sept | A | vs Iraklis | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Kifisia | 1–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Iraklis (Home · 3 matches) | Atromitos (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 66.7% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 33.3% | 50.0% |
| Clean sheet | 33.3% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 2.50 |
Home stats use Iraklis's home record; away stats use Atromitos's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.