Aris vs Iraklis — Super League Greece result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 19 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 12.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Aris
60%
top pick
Draw
24%
result
Iraklis
16%
Final score
0–0
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 24.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was an Aris win. Expected goals 1.77–0.80 against 0–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–0 (12.7%), 2–0 (12.0%), 1–1 (11.4%). It finished 0–0.
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Aris
| 22 Aug | A | vs Kalamata | 3–2 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs OFI Crete | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs AEK | 0–5 | L |
| 13 Sept | A | vs PAOK | 0–2 | L |
| 19 Sept | H | vs Iraklis | 0–0 | D |
Iraklis
| 22 Aug | A | vs AEK | 0–4 | L |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Volos NFC | 1–1 | D |
| 7 Sept | A | vs Asteras Tripolis | 2–0 | W |
| 12 Sept | H | vs Atromitos | 1–1 | D |
| 19 Sept | A | vs Aris | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Aris (Home · 4 matches) | Iraklis (Away · 6 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 33.3% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 2.17 |
Home stats use Aris's home record; away stats use Iraklis's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.