AEK head into this derby as champions-elect, sitting top of the Super League and unbeaten in their last five with three wins in that run. Their home record this season has been remarkably tight defensively — a clean sheet rate of 71% and an average of just 0.4 goals conceded per game at home dwarfs the league norm. Their BTTS rate of 21% is strikingly low compared to the league average of 46%, pointing to a side that dominates and suffocates rather than trades blows.

Panathinaikos arrive in patchy away form, winning just once in their last five on the road, and the head-to-head record firmly favours the hosts with two wins and a draw from recent meetings.

This looks like a low-scoring affair. Both teams scoring feels unlikely given AEK's defensive solidity at home, and the data suggests the league leaders have the tools to grind out another controlled, clinical home performance against a Panathinaikos side short of away momentum.