Utrecht vs PEC Zwolle — Eredivisie forecast, Saturday, 24 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Utrecht
60%
Draw
21%
PEC Zwolle
19%
Expected goals
2.22–1.14
Utrecht · PEC Zwolle
Utrecht win 60% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (9.5%), 2–1 (9.3%), 2–0 (8.4%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 61% of simulations.
Those three cover 27% of outcomes; the other 73% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Utrecht win is 2–1 (9.3%).
Utrecht score at least twice in 64%; PEC Zwolle in 32%.
Scoreline distribution
PEC Zwolle goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 9.5 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.3 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Rows: Utrecht goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 63% | 20% | 16% |
| Market reference | 60% | 21% | 19% |
| Metis Forecast | 60% | 21% | 19% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Utrecht | 1.60 |
| Draw | 4.42 |
| PEC Zwolle | 4.87 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Utrecht
| 9 Aug | A | vs Groningen | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Aug | H | vs AZ | 1–4 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Sparta Rotterdam | 3–3 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | vs PSV | 1–6 | L |
| 8 Sept | H | vs Go Ahead Eagles | 3–3 | D |
PEC Zwolle
| 9 Aug | H | vs Ajax | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Twente | 1–3 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Heerenveen | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs NEC | 1–3 | L |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Sparta Rotterdam | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Utrecht (Home · 4 matches) | PEC Zwolle (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 50.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Avg goals | 5.50 | 3.25 |
Home stats use Utrecht's home record; away stats use PEC Zwolle's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.