Utrecht vs NEC — Eredivisie forecast, Sunday, 8 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Utrecht
40%
Draw
25%
NEC
35%
Expected goals
1.80–1.56
Utrecht · NEC
Utrecht win 40% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (10.8%), 1–2 (9.0%), 2–1 (7.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 67% of simulations.
Those three cover 27% of outcomes; the other 73% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Utrecht score at least twice in 53%; NEC in 47%.
Scoreline distribution
NEC goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.6 | 10.8 | 9.0 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 7.0 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.9 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: Utrecht goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 53% | 23% | 24% |
| Market reference | 40% | 25% | 35% |
| Metis Forecast | 40% | 25% | 35% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Utrecht | 2.40 |
| Draw | 3.82 |
| NEC | 2.71 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Utrecht
| 9 Aug | A | vs Groningen | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Aug | H | vs AZ | 1–4 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Sparta Rotterdam | 3–3 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | vs PSV | 1–6 | L |
| 8 Sept | H | vs Go Ahead Eagles | 3–3 | D |
NEC
| 8 Aug | H | vs Telstar | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Willem II | 4–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs PEC Zwolle | 3–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Feyenoord | 1–3 | L |
| 8 Sept | H | vs Excelsior | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Utrecht (Home · 5 matches) | NEC (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.80 | 3.50 |
Home stats use Utrecht's home record; away stats use NEC's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.