Utrecht head into this one in decent shape, picking up four wins from their last five at home, and their defensive record has been a quiet strength this season — conceding under a goal per game on average and keeping clean sheets in over a quarter of their home fixtures. That solidity looks well-matched against a NAC Breda side that has managed just 0.8 goals per game on the road and arrives having not won any of their last five away fixtures.

NAC do concede freely away from home, averaging two goals per game and keeping clean sheets in only 13% of those matches, which plays into Utrecht's hands. Interestingly though, both sides sit well below the Eredivisie average for BTTS and Over 2.5, suggesting this could be a tighter, lower-scoring affair than the league norm.

The form gap between a settled seventh-place side and a relegation-threatened visitor points to a Utrecht-controlled contest. This looks more comfortable for the hosts than it might appear on paper.