Utrecht head into this on an alternating win-loss pattern across their last five, which hints at some inconsistency, but at home they have been relatively solid defensively, keeping clean sheets in nearly a third of their home games and conceding under a goal per match on average. Their home BTTS rate of 50% sits well below the Eredivisie average of 62%, reflecting that defensive structure.

Fortuna Sittard arrive in poor shape, winless in their last five away from home and yet curiously productive in an open, chaotic way on the road. Their away BTTS rate of 75% and over 2.5 goals in 69% of away matches are both significantly above the league average, largely because they have conceded two goals per game and kept zero clean sheets in away fixtures all season.

That combination of a leaky Fortuna side and a Utrecht team that does tend to score at home makes this look more goal-friendly than Utrecht's home stats alone would suggest. The visitors are not undervalued here.