Twente vs PSV — Eredivisie result and pre-match forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 4.1 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Twente
33%
result
Draw
23%
PSV
44%
top pick
Final score
3–2
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Twente win 33.1% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a PSV win. Expected goals 1.70–1.83 against 3–2 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–2 (9.9%), 1–1 (9.6%), 2–2 (7.0%). It finished 3–2.
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Twente
| 9 Aug | A | vs Heerenveen | 0–1 | L |
| 16 Aug | H | vs PEC Zwolle | 3–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Cambuur | 4–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Groningen | 2–2 | D |
| 9 Sept | H | vs Telstar | 1–0 | W |
PSV
| 8 Aug | H | vs Fortuna Sittard | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Excelsior | 2–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Groningen | 5–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Utrecht | 6–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Ajax | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Twente (Home · 5 matches) | PSV (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 4.40 |
Home stats use Twente's home record; away stats use PSV's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.