Twente vs PSV — Eredivisie forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Twente
32%
Draw
23%
PSV
45%
Expected goals
1.68–1.84
Twente · PSV
PSV win 45% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–2 (10.1%), 1–1 (9.7%), 2–2 (6.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 69% of simulations.
Those three cover 27% of outcomes; the other 73% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Twente score at least twice in 49%; PSV in 56%.
Scoreline distribution
PSV goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.5 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 3.5 | 9.7 | 10.1 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.3 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.0 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: Twente goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 44% | 23% | 32% |
| Market reference | 32% | 23% | 45% |
| Metis Forecast | 32% | 23% | 45% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Twente | 3.00 | 2.90 | 2.80 | 2.97 | 2.87 | 2.90 | 2.80 | 2.88 | 2.58 | 3.00 Pinnacle |
| Draw | 4.14 | 4.00 | 3.90 | 4.07 | 4.05 | 4.00 | 4.20 | 3.94 | 3.60 | 4.20 BetVictor |
| PSV | 2.18 | 2.15 | 2.10 | 2.18 | 2.20 | 2.10 | 2.10 | 2.11 | 2.06 | 2.20 Betano |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Twente
| 9 Aug | A | vs Heerenveen | 0–1 | L |
| 16 Aug | H | vs PEC Zwolle | 3–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Cambuur | 4–1 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Groningen | 2–2 | D |
| 9 Sept | H | vs Telstar | 1–0 | W |
PSV
| 8 Aug | H | vs Fortuna Sittard | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Excelsior | 2–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Groningen | 5–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Utrecht | 6–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Ajax | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Twente (Home · 4 matches) | PSV (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 4.75 |
Home stats use Twente's home record; away stats use PSV's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.