Sparta Rotterdam head into this Eredivisie derby in patchy form, taking just two points from their last four matches after a promising run earlier in the season. Sitting ninth, they have been defensively fragile at home, conceding an average of 1.5 goals per game, though they have also kept clean sheets in nearly a third of home fixtures. Excelsior arrive in better shape, back-to-back wins lifting them slightly off the bottom of the table, though their away defensive record is alarming with a clean sheet rate of just 12 percent on the road.

The goal data here is compelling. Excelsior's away matches have seen BTTS land in 75 percent of games and over 2.5 goals in 69 percent, both well above the Eredivisie average of 62 percent. Sparta's home games are notably quieter, but Excelsior tend to drag matches into open, end-to-end affairs. This fixture looks like it has goals in it, and with Excelsior's away form improving, the visitors may be undervalued to take something from it.