PSV head into this one as dominant league leaders but their recent home form carries a minor blemish, with that loss in the last five a reminder they are not entirely untouchable in front of their own fans. Twente arrive in reasonable shape, unbeaten in their last four away from home, and their defensive resilience on the road is worth noting with just one clean sheet conceded all season at just 6%.

The goals data is striking here. PSV's home matches have seen over 2.5 goals in an extraordinary 94% of games this season, well above the Eredivisie average of 62%, and both teams have scored in 81% of those fixtures. Twente's away BTTS figure mirrors that at 81%, also well above the league norm, so while they keep things tighter on the road overall, they do tend to contribute to open games.

Form points to a high-scoring contest, and this looks more like an end-to-end affair than a controlled home performance. The visitors are not without quality and may cause PSV problems, but the gap in class makes the hosts favourites here.