PSV vs Feyenoord — Eredivisie forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
PSV
48%
Draw
22%
Feyenoord
31%
Expected goals
2.00–1.71
PSV · Feyenoord
PSV win 48% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (10.0%), 1–1 (8.7%), 2–2 (6.9%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 71% of simulations.
Those three cover 26% of outcomes; the other 74% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
PSV score at least twice in 60%; Feyenoord in 50%.
Scoreline distribution
Feyenoord goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 10.0 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.9 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5+ | 0.7 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
Rows: PSV goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 36% | 23% | 41% |
| Market reference | 48% | 22% | 31% |
| Metis Forecast | 48% | 22% | 31% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| PSV | 2.02 |
| Draw | 4.28 |
| Feyenoord | 3.09 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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PSV
| 8 Aug | H | vs Fortuna Sittard | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Excelsior | 2–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Groningen | 5–1 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Utrecht | 6–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Ajax | 3–1 | W |
Feyenoord
| 9 Aug | A | vs Sparta Rotterdam | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Go Ahead Eagles | 2–2 | D |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Cambuur | 5–2 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Den Haag | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs NEC | 3–1 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | PSV (Home · 4 matches) | Feyenoord (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | 25.0% | 40.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.25 | 5.20 |
Home stats use PSV's home record; away stats use Feyenoord's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.