PEC Zwolle vs ADO Den Haag — Eredivisie forecast, Sunday, 1 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
PEC Zwolle
43%
Draw
25%
ADO Den Haag
31%
Expected goals
1.67–1.44
PEC Zwolle · ADO Den Haag
PEC Zwolle win 43% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.5%), 2–1 (9.5%), 1–2 (7.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 63% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely PEC Zwolle win is 2–1 (9.5%).
PEC Zwolle score at least twice in 50%; ADO Den Haag in 42%.
Scoreline distribution
ADO Den Haag goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.5 | 7.3 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.5 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: PEC Zwolle goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 39% | 26% | 35% |
| Market reference | 43% | 25% | 31% |
| Metis Forecast | 43% | 25% | 31% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| PEC Zwolle | 2.21 |
| Draw | 3.74 |
| ADO Den Haag | 3.02 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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PEC Zwolle
| 9 Aug | H | vs Ajax | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Twente | 1–3 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Heerenveen | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs NEC | 1–3 | L |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Sparta Rotterdam | 2–2 | D |
No recent results.
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | PEC Zwolle (Home · 5 matches) | ADO Den Haag (Away · no matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | — |
| Over 2.5 rate | 60.0% | — |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | — |
| Avg goals | 3.80 | — |
Home stats use PEC Zwolle's home record; away stats use ADO Den Haag's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.