NEC head into this one in strong shape, sitting third in the Eredivisie table and losing just once in their last five at home. They have been a genuinely productive attacking side on home soil this season, averaging 2.5 goals scored per game while their over 2.5 rate of 87% sits well clear of the league average of 62%. BTTS has landed in nearly three quarters of their home fixtures, suggesting they do leave space at the back despite their quality.

Telstar are a different proposition away from home, winning just once in their last five on the road and averaging only a goal per game in those fixtures. Their away over 2.5 rate of 47% is notably below the league norm, and they have kept just one clean sheet in five road trips.

The limited head-to-head record offers little steer, but the form gap here is significant. NEC look like the dominant force, and the data suggests this could be a comfortable home performance with goals flowing at that end.