NEC vs Groningen — Eredivisie forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Independent model — no market priceModel updated
NEC
37%
Draw
26%
Groningen
38%
Expected goals
1.55–1.56
NEC · Groningen
Groningen win 38% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.6%), 1–2 (8.4%), 2–1 (8.3%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 63% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
NEC score at least twice in 46%; Groningen in 46%.
Scoreline distribution
Groningen goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 6.1 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 11.6 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.3 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.3 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: NEC goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| NEC | 2.35 |
| Draw | 3.97 |
| Groningen | 2.68 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
What changed overnight?
vs previous runxG 1.63–1.50 → 1.55–1.56
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NEC
| 8 Aug | H | vs Telstar | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Willem II | 4–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs PEC Zwolle | 3–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Feyenoord | 1–3 | L |
| 8 Sept | H | vs Excelsior | 2–2 | D |
Groningen
| 9 Aug | H | vs Utrecht | 2–1 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Den Haag | 4–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs PSV | 1–5 | L |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Fortuna Sittard | 2–3 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Twente | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | NEC (Home · 5 matches) | Groningen (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 80.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.40 | 4.75 |
Home stats use NEC's home record; away stats use Groningen's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.