NEC vs Go Ahead Eagles — Eredivisie forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
NEC
50%
Draw
22%
Go Ahead Eagles
27%
Expected goals
1.95–1.47
NEC · Go Ahead Eagles
NEC win 50% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (10.3%), 1–1 (9.7%), 2–0 (6.5%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 67% of simulations.
Those three cover 26% of outcomes; the other 74% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
NEC score at least twice in 59%; Go Ahead Eagles in 43%.
Scoreline distribution
Go Ahead Eagles goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 9.7 | 6.2 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 10.2 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: NEC goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 43% | 24% | 33% |
| Market reference | 50% | 22% | 27% |
| Metis Forecast | 50% | 22% | 27% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEC | 1.93 | 1.90 | 1.85 | 1.93 | 1.98 | 1.91 | 1.87 | 1.87 | 1.87 | 1.98 Betano |
| Draw | 4.27 | 4.00 | 3.80 | 4.12 | 4.30 | 4.00 | 4.10 | 4.00 | 3.58 | 4.30 Betano |
| Go Ahead Eagles | 3.54 | 3.70 | 3.30 | 3.56 | 3.50 | 3.30 | 3.40 | 3.45 | 2.99 | 3.70 Bet365 |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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NEC
| 8 Aug | H | vs Telstar | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Willem II | 4–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs PEC Zwolle | 3–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Feyenoord | 1–3 | L |
| 8 Sept | H | vs Excelsior | 2–2 | D |
Go Ahead Eagles
| 8 Aug | H | vs Willem II | 4–1 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Feyenoord | 2–2 | D |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Den Haag | 3–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs AZ | 2–5 | L |
| 8 Sept | A | vs Utrecht | 3–3 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | NEC (Home · 4 matches) | Go Ahead Eagles (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.25 | 4.75 |
Home stats use NEC's home record; away stats use Go Ahead Eagles's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.