NAC Breda arrive here in dire straits, winless in their last five and sitting 17th in the Eredivisie table. Their home record is particularly concerning — averaging just 1.1 goals scored per game while conceding 1.4, and keeping a clean sheet in fewer than one in five home matches. Heerenveen, by contrast, carry genuine momentum with three wins from their last four away from home, and their away BTTS rate of 56% alongside a striking O2.5 rate of 75% tells a clear story about the open nature of their road trips.

The only prior meeting this season ended level, but context matters — Heerenveen are the stronger side right now by some distance. Their away average of 1.5 goals scored against a leaky NAC backline is a compelling combination. The data suggests Heerenveen are undervalued here, and the visitors look well-positioned to take all three points in what could be a relatively comfortable away performance.