NAC Breda arrive at this fixture in poor shape, winless in their last five and sitting 17th in the Eredivisie, making this a genuinely precarious run-in for the hosts. Their home record offers little comfort either, with just one clean sheet in every five home games and an average of only 1.2 goals scored per match. Ajax, meanwhile, have been unpredictable on the road, but their away numbers tell a compelling story about open football.

Ajax's away BTTS rate of 87% is dramatically above the league average of 63%, and their O2.5 rate of 73% similarly dwarfs the norm. They concede on the road almost as often as they score, suggesting this will not be a controlled, low-block performance from the visitors.

This looks like a game that will produce goals, with Ajax the stronger side on current evidence. The scoreline could be comfortable for the visitors, though NAC may well get on the scoresheet in what shapes up as an open contest.