Heerenveen vs NEC — Eredivisie forecast, Saturday, 31 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Heerenveen
49%
Draw
22%
NEC
29%
Expected goals
1.97–1.39
Heerenveen · NEC
Heerenveen win 49% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (9.7%), 2–1 (8.4%), 1–2 (7.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 64% of simulations.
Those three cover 26% of outcomes; the other 74% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Heerenveen win is 2–1 (8.4%).
Heerenveen score at least twice in 58%; NEC in 41%.
Scoreline distribution
NEC goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 9.7 | 7.8 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.4 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Rows: Heerenveen goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 58% | 22% | 20% |
| Market reference | 49% | 22% | 29% |
| Metis Forecast | 49% | 22% | 29% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Heerenveen
| 9 Aug | H | vs Twente | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Ajax | 2–2 | D |
| 22 Aug | H | vs PEC Zwolle | 0–2 | L |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Willem II | 2–2 | D |
| 6 Sept | H | vs AZ | 2–3 | L |
NEC
| 8 Aug | H | vs Telstar | 1–2 | L |
| 15 Aug | A | vs Willem II | 4–1 | W |
| 29 Aug | A | vs PEC Zwolle | 3–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | H | vs Feyenoord | 1–3 | L |
| 8 Sept | H | vs Excelsior | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Heerenveen (Home · 5 matches) | NEC (Away · 4 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 20.0% | 75.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 75.0% |
| Clean sheet | 60.0% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.40 | 3.50 |
Home stats use Heerenveen's home record; away stats use NEC's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.