Heerenveen come into this in decent shape, taking ten points from their last five at the Abe Lenstra Stadion and averaging 2.1 goals scored per home game. Their defensive record is shakier than that attacking output suggests, however, with a clean sheet rate of just 7% at home this season. Fortuna Sittard arrive in inconsistent away form, winning just once in their last five on the road, but they have not kept a single clean sheet away from home all season while conceding 2.0 per game on their travels.

The goal data here is hard to ignore. Both sides sit well above the Eredivisie averages for BTTS and Over 2.5, and the numbers point to an open, high-scoring contest. Heerenveen's home environment consistently produces goals from both ends, and Fortuna's defensive fragility away from home only reinforces that picture. This looks like a fixture where goals should flow, and Heerenveen's superior home form makes them the more likely winners despite the sole H2H result favouring Fortuna.