Groningen vs PEC Zwolle — Eredivisie result and pre-match forecast, Friday, 18 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Independent model — no market priceFrozen as published · 14.5 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Groningen
59%
pick · result
Draw
22%
PEC Zwolle
19%
Final score
3–0
Top pick landed
Metis gave a Groningen win 58.5% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Groningen win. Expected goals 2.12–1.16 against 3–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (10.0%), 2–1 (9.8%), 2–0 (8.4%). It finished 3–0.
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Groningen
| 9 Aug | H | vs Utrecht | 2–1 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Den Haag | 4–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs PSV | 1–5 | L |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Fortuna Sittard | 2–3 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Twente | 2–2 | D |
PEC Zwolle
| 9 Aug | H | vs Ajax | 0–2 | L |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Twente | 1–3 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | vs Heerenveen | 2–0 | W |
| 29 Aug | H | vs NEC | 1–3 | L |
| 4 Sept | A | vs Sparta Rotterdam | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Groningen (Home · 6 matches) | PEC Zwolle (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 83.3% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 100.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 16.7% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 4.50 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Groningen's home record; away stats use PEC Zwolle's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.