Groningen head into this fixture with inconsistent recent form, winning two of their last five but slipping to back-to-back defeats. NEC arrive in far steadier shape, unbeaten in their last five away from home and sitting third in the table, making them a formidable visitor for a mid-table side still finding their footing.

The attacking threat NEC carry on the road is hard to ignore. Their BTTS rate of 88% in away fixtures dwarfs the league average of 62%, and they have kept just one clean sheet all season away from home. Groningen have scored in half their home games, so the conditions for goals on both sides look genuinely favourable here.

The visitors look undervalued given the quality gap between the sides and NEC's relentless away record. Groningen's lone head-to-head meeting ended in defeat, and nothing in the current form picture suggests a different outcome. This one looks like NEC's game to lose.