Groningen head into this fixture in solid shape, picking up three wins from their last five with just two draws and no defeats. Their home record shows defensive solidity — a clean sheet rate of 40% and an average of under a goal conceded per game — though their scoring output of 1.5 goals per game sits only modestly above mid-table levels. Excelsior, by contrast, arrive in poor form with four defeats in their last five away from home, and their away clean sheet rate of just 13% tells its own story.

The tactical picture favors the hosts. Excelsior's away games have produced BTTS in 73% of matches and goals over 2.5 in 67%, well above the league average, largely because they struggle to keep things tight on the road. Groningen's home games sit below both league averages for BTTS and goals. The data suggests this could be a controlled home win rather than a high-scoring affair, and Excelsior look vulnerable here.