Two sides in near-identical patchy form head into this Eredivisie meeting, with both alternating wins and losses across their last five outings before AZ steadied slightly with back-to-back away wins. Go Ahead Eagles sit mid-table at eleventh and have been generous hosts this season, averaging 2.2 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per home game, which helps explain why their home BTTS rate of 60% and over 2.5 rate of 73% are both elevated — the latter sitting well above the league average of 62%. AZ on the road tell a slightly different story, averaging just 1.2 goals scored away from home while conceding 1.6, and their away BTTS and over 2.5 figures both sit below the league norm.

The limited H2H record — just one meeting ending in a draw — offers little to go on, but the data suggests this could be a more competitive affair than AZ's higher league standing implies. The visitors look like reasonable value to be tested here.