Fortuna Sittard vs Telstar — Eredivisie forecast, Saturday, 7 November 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Fortuna Sittard
47%
Draw
25%
Telstar
28%
Expected goals
1.80–1.40
Fortuna Sittard · Telstar
Fortuna Sittard win 47% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.4%), 2–1 (9.6%), 1–2 (6.8%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 64% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Fortuna Sittard win is 2–1 (9.6%).
Fortuna Sittard score at least twice in 54%; Telstar in 41%.
Scoreline distribution
Telstar goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 3.9 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 6.8 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 9.6 | 6.7 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 5.6 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Rows: Fortuna Sittard goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 44% | 25% | 31% |
| Market reference | 47% | 25% | 28% |
| Metis Forecast | 47% | 25% | 28% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard | 2.07 |
| Draw | 3.74 |
| Telstar | 3.36 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 02 Nov · 05:06 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Fortuna Sittard
| 8 Aug | A | vs PSV | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Cambuur | 3–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs AZ | 0–2 | L |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Groningen | 3–2 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Den Haag | 3–2 | W |
Telstar
| 8 Aug | A | vs NEC | 2–1 | W |
| 14 Aug | H | vs Sparta Rotterdam | 1–3 | L |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Ajax | 0–4 | L |
| 6 Sept | H | vs Cambuur | 2–2 | D |
| 9 Sept | A | vs Twente | 0–1 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Fortuna Sittard (Home · 5 matches) | Telstar (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 60.0% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 40.0% |
| Clean sheet | 20.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.00 | 2.00 |
Home stats use Fortuna Sittard's home record; away stats use Telstar's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.