Fortuna Sittard head into this mid-table Eredivisie clash in poor shape, winning none of their last five and conceding freely at home this season, averaging 1.7 goals against per game. PEC Zwolle arrive with a more mixed but slightly more encouraging record, picking up wins in two of their last five away from home, though their defensive numbers on the road are alarming — averaging 2.9 goals conceded per away match with a clean sheet rate of just 6%.

The data suggests this fixture has goals written all over it. Both sides rank well above the Eredivisie average for BTTS and Over 2.5 outcomes, with Zwolle's away matches producing BTTS in 88% of games compared to the league average of 62%. Fortuna's home record mirrors that volatility.

Despite Fortuna's home advantage, their dreadful recent form and leaky backline make this look tighter than a straightforward home win narrative would suggest. Zwolle look undervalued here.