Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior — Eredivisie forecast, Sunday, 25 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Fortuna Sittard
40%
Draw
26%
Excelsior
34%
Expected goals
1.60–1.53
Fortuna Sittard · Excelsior
Fortuna Sittard win 40% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (11.8%), 2–1 (9.4%), 1–2 (7.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 64% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Fortuna Sittard score at least twice in 48%; Excelsior in 45%.
Scoreline distribution
Excelsior goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.6 | 11.8 | 7.2 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 9.4 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Rows: Fortuna Sittard goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 34% | 25% | 41% |
| Market reference | 40% | 26% | 34% |
| Metis Forecast | 40% | 26% | 34% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Fortuna Sittard | 2.39 |
| Draw | 3.63 |
| Excelsior | 2.82 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 23 Oct · 04:31 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Fortuna Sittard
| 8 Aug | A | vs PSV | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Cambuur | 3–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs AZ | 0–2 | L |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Groningen | 3–2 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Den Haag | 3–2 | W |
Excelsior
| 7 Aug | A | vs Cambuur | 4–0 | W |
| 15 Aug | H | vs PSV | 1–2 | L |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Sparta Rotterdam | 2–1 | W |
| 5 Sept | A | vs Willem II | 3–0 | W |
| 8 Sept | A | vs NEC | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Fortuna Sittard (Home · 4 matches) | Excelsior (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 75.0% | 40.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 100.0% |
| Clean sheet | 0.0% | 40.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.50 | 3.80 |
Home stats use Fortuna Sittard's home record; away stats use Excelsior's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.