Feyenoord come into this as clear favourites but their recent home form raises questions — four draws in their last five at De Kuip suggests they've been dropping points they'd expect to win. Groningen, however, arrive in decent nick with three wins from their last five away from home, which is a solid return for a ninth-placed side.

The goal data tells an interesting story. Feyenoord's BTTS rate of 73% at home is well above the league average, and their defensive record of 1.4 conceded per home game means Groningen — averaging 1.3 goals away — are unlikely to be completely shut out. Groningen's away BTTS of 53% is below the league average, pulling in opposite directions here.

This looks tighter than Feyenoord's league position might suggest. The hosts' stalling form combined with a Groningen side that has shown genuine away resilience makes the visitors more interesting than they'll be priced.