Feyenoord vs Fortuna Sittard — Eredivisie forecast, Saturday, 31 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Feyenoord
84%
Draw
10%
Fortuna Sittard
6%
Expected goals
3.09–0.91
Feyenoord · Fortuna Sittard
Feyenoord win 84% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 2–1 (9.5%), 2–0 (9.4%), 3–1 (9.2%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 58% of simulations.
Those three cover 28% of outcomes; the other 72% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Feyenoord score at least twice in 84%; Fortuna Sittard in 23%.
Scoreline distribution
Fortuna Sittard goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 4 | 6.6 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 6.9 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Rows: Feyenoord goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 77% | 15% | 8% |
| Market reference | 84% | 10% | 6% |
| Metis Forecast | 84% | 10% | 6% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
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Feyenoord
| 9 Aug | A | vs Sparta Rotterdam | 1–0 | W |
| 16 Aug | H | vs Go Ahead Eagles | 2–2 | D |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Cambuur | 5–2 | W |
| 30 Aug | H | vs Den Haag | 2–2 | D |
| 5 Sept | A | vs NEC | 3–1 | W |
Fortuna Sittard
| 8 Aug | A | vs PSV | 2–2 | D |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Cambuur | 3–1 | W |
| 22 Aug | H | vs AZ | 0–2 | L |
| 28 Aug | A | vs Groningen | 3–2 | W |
| 6 Sept | A | vs Den Haag | 3–2 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Feyenoord (Home · 4 matches) | Fortuna Sittard (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 80.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 75.0% | 80.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 3.75 | 3.80 |
Home stats use Feyenoord's home record; away stats use Fortuna Sittard's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.