Excelsior head into this fixture in poor shape, picking up just one point from their last five home games while averaging under a goal per game on their own patch. Their clean sheet record at home is weak, and they have struggled to keep things tight defensively all season. The one previous meeting between these sides ended in a defeat for Excelsior, and there is little in the current data to suggest a different outcome here.

Utrecht arrive in reasonable form, winning three of their last five away from home and carrying a genuine goal threat on the road, averaging 1.5 goals per away game. Their BTTS rate in away fixtures sits at 73 percent, well above the Eredivisie average, which points to open, end-to-end football when they travel.

The visitors look the stronger side on most metrics, and this feels like a game Utrecht should be controlling. The away side appears undervalued here.