AZ come into this on the back of a mixed run, with two wins sandwiched between draws and a defeat, but their home record tells a more convincing story. They average 2.2 goals scored per home game and have kept clean sheets in just 25% of those fixtures, meaning they tend to generate enough attacking output while staying vulnerable at the back. Their home BTTS and Over 2.5 rates of 75% both sit well above the Eredivisie average of 62%, making this a ground where goals tend to flow.

NAC Breda arrive in difficult shape, winless in their last four away from home and averaging just 0.8 goals scored on the road. Their away BTTS rate of 44% drops noticeably below the league norm, and they have kept clean sheets in only 12% of away games, pointing to a side that struggles to both score and defend consistently.

With a relegation-threatened side visiting a team with genuine goal threat at home, the data suggests AZ should have enough to impose themselves here. This looks like a match tilted firmly in the home side's favour.