Zaglebie vs Wisla Plock — Ekstraklasa forecast, Sunday, 20 September 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Zaglebie
40%
Draw
27%
Wisla Plock
33%
Expected goals
1.41–1.19
Zaglebie · Wisla Plock
Zaglebie win 40% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.1%), 0–1 (9.0%), 1–0 (8.7%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 53% of simulations.
Those three cover 31% of outcomes; the other 69% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
Zaglebie score at least twice in 40%; Wisla Plock in 34%.
Scoreline distribution
Wisla Plock goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 9.0 | 5.5 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 13.1 | 8.4 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Zaglebie goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 47% | 27% | 25% |
| Market reference | 40% | 27% | 33% |
| Metis Forecast | 40% | 27% | 33% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle | Bet365 | William Hill | 1xBet | Betano | Betfair SB | BetVictor | MarathonBet | SBO | Best |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zaglebie | 2.44 | 2.25 | 2.38 | 2.37 | 2.40 | 2.40 | 2.38 | 2.35 | 2.30 | 2.44 Pinnacle |
| Draw | 3.49 | 3.30 | 3.20 | 3.28 | 3.35 | 3.50 | 3.25 | 3.28 | 3.11 | 3.50 Betfair SB |
| Wisla Plock | 2.92 | 2.88 | 2.80 | 2.84 | 2.85 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.81 | 2.68 | 2.92 Pinnacle |
Reference prices, published with the 23 Sep · 03:58 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Zaglebie
| 27 Jul | H | vs Piast Gliwice | 2–0 | W |
| 2 Aug | A | vs Legia | 1–3 | L |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Slask Wroclaw | 2–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Radomiak Radom | 0–0 | D |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Pogon Szczecin | 0–0 | D |
Wisla Plock
| 26 Jul | A | vs Rakow | 2–1 | W |
| 31 Jul | H | vs Widzew Lodz | 0–0 | D |
| 7 Aug | A | vs Wisla | 1–2 | L |
| 23 Aug | A | vs GKS Katowice | 0–5 | L |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Korona Kielce | 0–2 | L |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Zaglebie (Home · 5 matches) | Wisla Plock (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 20.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.00 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Zaglebie's home record; away stats use Wisla Plock's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.