🇵🇱 Ekstraklasa·Saturday, 29 August 2026·18:15
Odds comparison
| Market | Pinnacle | Best |
|---|---|---|
| Zaglebie | 2.67 | 2.67 |
| Draw | 3.32 | 3.32 |
| Pogon Szczecin | 2.76 | 2.76 |
Metis Forecast
model + marketZaglebie
36%
Draw
29%
Pogon Szczecin
35%
Zaglebie 1.30 xGexpected goals1.18 xG Pogon Szczecin
Zaglebie win 36% of the current Metis Forecast.
Both teams score in 51% of simulations.
The most likely scoreline is 1–1 (13.8%).
Zaglebie score at least twice in 37%; Pogon Szczecin in 33%.
1–1 13.8%0–1 10.3%0–0 9.4%1–2 8.8%1–0 8.6%2–1 7.0%
Scoreline distribution
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.3 | 5.9 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 13.8 | 8.8 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
rows = Zaglebie goals · columns = Pogon Szczecin goals · % of simulations
Match outcomes
Both teams score51%
Over 1.5 goals72%
Over 2.5 goals45%
Over 3.5 goals24%
Over 4.5 goals11%
Zaglebie clean sheet30%
Pogon Szczecin clean sheet28%
Zaglebie score 2+37%
Pogon Szczecin score 2+33%
Zaglebie score 3+15%
Model vs market
| Source | Zaglebie | Draw | Pogon Szczecin |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 47% | 28% | 25% |
| Market (de-vigged) | 36% | 29% | 35% |
| Metis Forecast | 36% | 29% | 35% |
The Metis Forecast combines the model's scoreline structure with de-vigged market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model output is kept separate and benchmarked independently.
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Zaglebie
| 27 Jul | H | vs Piast Gliwice | 2–0 | W |
| 2 Aug | A | vs Legia | 1–3 | L |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Slask Wroclaw | 2–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Radomiak Radom | 0–0 | D |
Pogon Szczecin
| 24 Jul | H | vs Legia | 0–1 | L |
| 3 Aug | A | vs Cracovia | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Aug | H | vs Motor Lublin | 3–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Wisla | 2–2 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings found.
Model context
| Stat | Zaglebie (Home) | Pogon Szczecin (Away) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 100.0% |
| Avg goals | 2.50 | 2.00 |
Home stats use Zaglebie's home record; away stats use Pogon Szczecin's away record this season.