Zaglebie vs Pogon Szczecin — Ekstraklasa result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 29 August 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 2.5 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Zaglebie
36%
top pick
Draw
29%
result
Pogon Szczecin
35%
Final score
0–0
Top pick missed
Metis gave the draw 28.9% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a Zaglebie win. Expected goals 1.32–1.23 against 0–0 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.8%), 0–1 (9.4%), 0–0 (8.9%). It finished 0–0 — one of them.
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Zaglebie
| 27 Jul | H | vs Piast Gliwice | 2–0 | W |
| 2 Aug | A | vs Legia | 1–3 | L |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Slask Wroclaw | 2–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Radomiak Radom | 0–0 | D |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Pogon Szczecin | 0–0 | D |
Pogon Szczecin
| 24 Jul | H | vs Legia | 0–1 | L |
| 3 Aug | A | vs Cracovia | 2–0 | W |
| 8 Aug | H | vs Motor Lublin | 3–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Wisla | 2–2 | D |
| 29 Aug | A | vs Zaglebie | 0–0 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Zaglebie (Home · 5 matches) | Pogon Szczecin (Away · 3 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 40.0% | 33.3% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 40.0% | 33.3% |
| Clean sheet | 40.0% | 66.7% |
| Avg goals | 2.00 | 1.67 |
Home stats use Zaglebie's home record; away stats use Pogon Szczecin's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.