Zaglebie vs GKS Katowice — Ekstraklasa result and pre-match forecast, Saturday, 12 September 2026
Metis pre-match forecast
Market-anchored distributionFrozen as published · 9.9 h before kick-off. Never re-computed after the match.
Zaglebie
36%
result
Draw
28%
GKS Katowice
36%
top pick
Final score
2–1
Top pick missed
Metis gave a Zaglebie win 36.0% before kick-off, and its most likely result was a GKS Katowice win. Expected goals 1.40–1.33 against 2–1 actual.
Forecast against the result
How this forecast scored
Both scores are losses: lower is better, 0 is a forecast that put all of its probability on what happened. A single fixture says nothing on its own — the league's running record is on its league page, and the model is measured against the Pinnacle opening price in the methodology.
Most likely scores before kick-off: 1–1 (13.3%), 1–2 (9.0%), 0–1 (8.5%). It finished 2–1.
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Zaglebie
| 27 Jul | H | vs Piast Gliwice | 2–0 | W |
| 2 Aug | A | vs Legia | 1–3 | L |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Slask Wroclaw | 2–1 | W |
| 23 Aug | A | vs Radomiak Radom | 0–0 | D |
| 29 Aug | H | vs Pogon Szczecin | 0–0 | D |
GKS Katowice
| 26 Jul | A | vs Wisla | 1–2 | L |
| 2 Aug | H | vs Radomiak Radom | 3–1 | W |
| 16 Aug | A | vs Motor Lublin | 0–1 | L |
| 23 Aug | H | vs Wisla Plock | 5–0 | W |
| 30 Aug | A | vs Gornik Zabrze | 3–2 | W |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Zaglebie (Home · 7 matches) | GKS Katowice (Away · 7 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 28.6% | 57.1% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 28.6% | 71.4% |
| Clean sheet | 57.1% | 0.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.71 | 3.00 |
Home stats use Zaglebie's home record; away stats use GKS Katowice's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.