Wisla Plock vs Piast Gliwice — Ekstraklasa forecast, Saturday, 31 October 2026
Metis Forecast
Market-anchored distributionModel updated
Wisla Plock
46%
Draw
27%
Piast Gliwice
27%
Expected goals
1.46–1.15
Wisla Plock · Piast Gliwice
Wisla Plock win 46% of the current Metis Forecast. Most likely scores: 1–1 (13.1%), 1–0 (11.2%), 2–1 (10.6%).More forecast detail +
Both teams score in 54% of simulations.
Those three cover 35% of outcomes; the other 65% is spread across every remaining scoreline.
The most likely Wisla Plock win is 1–0 (11.2%).
Wisla Plock score at least twice in 44%; Piast Gliwice in 31%.
Scoreline distribution
Piast Gliwice goals →
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 6.4 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.1 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 10.6 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
| 5+ | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Rows: Wisla Plock goals · values are percentages
Match outcomes
Team scoring & clean sheets
Model vs market
| Source | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw Metis model | 35% | 28% | 37% |
| Market reference | 46% | 27% | 27% |
| Metis Forecast | 46% | 27% | 27% |
Market reference: pinnacle, de-vigged (shin) · price snapshot .
The forecast combines the model’s scoreline structure with market information where a fresh price exists. The raw model is kept separate and benchmarked independently against the Pinnacle opening price.
Most likely scores
Market odds
| Market | Pinnacle |
|---|---|
| Wisla Plock | 2.08 |
| Draw | 3.42 |
| Piast Gliwice | 3.52 |
Market reference: Pinnacle. Prices shown for context, not as a best-price comparison.
Reference prices, published with the 26 Oct · 04:41 UTC model run. They are not live and will have moved since.
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Wisla Plock
| 26 Jul | A | vs Rakow | 2–1 | W |
| 31 Jul | H | vs Widzew Lodz | 0–0 | D |
| 7 Aug | A | vs Wisla | 1–2 | L |
| 23 Aug | A | vs GKS Katowice | 0–5 | L |
| 28 Aug | H | vs Korona Kielce | 0–2 | L |
Piast Gliwice
| 27 Jul | A | vs Zaglebie | 0–2 | L |
| 1 Aug | H | vs Wisla | 4–3 | W |
| 9 Aug | A | vs Lech Poznan | 0–3 | L |
| 15 Aug | H | vs Wieczysta Krakow | 3–4 | L |
| 22 Aug | H | vs Legia | 1–1 | D |
Head to head
No previous meetings in the Metis results archive for this competition.
Model context
| Stat | Wisla Plock (Home · 4 matches) | Piast Gliwice (Away · 5 matches) |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS rate | 25.0% | 20.0% |
| Over 2.5 rate | 25.0% | 20.0% |
| Clean sheet | 50.0% | 40.0% |
| Avg goals | 1.75 | 2.20 |
Home stats use Wisla Plock's home record; away stats use Piast Gliwice's away record this season. These are completed-match rates over the samples shown above, not model probabilities — early in a season a handful of matches produces 0% and 100% readings.